Want to get better at predicting the future and therefore making better decisions today?
Give up on black-and-white, yes-and-no style thinking, and instead try to think in terms of probabilities.
Not, 'Will X or Y occur?'
But, 'What is the chance of X or Y occurring -- 10, 50, 80 percent?'
This tip comes "from the work of [University of Pennsylvania psychologist] Philip Tetlock and his 'superforecasters,'" Dunning notes.
Tetlock has found that "people who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to do much better in forecasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties."
Give up on black-and-white, yes-and-no style thinking, and instead try to think in terms of probabilities.
Not, 'Will X or Y occur?'
But, 'What is the chance of X or Y occurring -- 10, 50, 80 percent?'
This tip comes "from the work of [University of Pennsylvania psychologist] Philip Tetlock and his 'superforecasters,'" Dunning notes.
Tetlock has found that "people who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to do much better in forecasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties."
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| Photo by Mario Azzi on Unsplash |
